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O.T.: An extraordinarily dark day in American history...

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  • edited January 2021
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  • @cian said:

    @michael_m said:

    As to your point #3, the Tories have won the popular vote there every time they have won to my knowledge - the system lends itself to the winner of the popular vote having a majority in the House of Commons.

    Sorry I scrambled it. Governments have won with a minority vote in the UK, and the Tories have never got anywhere close to 50% of the vote. The differences in popular vote between the two parties are usually quite small, whereas the differences between seats can be enormous.

    I think that’s true - there has also been a push for a few decades from parties other than the two largest ones for representation in Parliament that is proportional to the amount of the popular vote that they receive. As it is, there is significantly more than just two parties with seats in the House of Commons, but they tend to have regional representation in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales.

  • edited January 2021

    @LinearLineman said:
    MUST BE FUCKING SEEN!!! MICHAEL MOORE...

    Thank you for posting this, Mike!

    I always have my BS detector up with Moore because he has a tendency to exaggerate at times.

    He brings-up so many valid points! Especially the fact that there were no Capitol Police backups available. The lack of any police or military helicopters anywhere to be found. No mounted police units. No round-up arrests of everyone at the scene. The list is virtually endless.

    I worked in D.C. when Ronnie was President and Gorbie came to town. Security like you have never seen. There were unmarked white vans on every corner. Later we learned there were federal agents patrolling the sewers and steel blockages were placed in each pipe for tens of blocks around the perimeter.

    If they could do that decades ago, why couldn’t they be bothered to lift a single finger a week ago?

    If you think it’s bad now, just wait until next week...

    You have been warned.

  • edited January 2021

    It seems like the appropriate security and military response has happened now, but there are certainly a lot of questions as to why a large group of anti-government fanatics were allowed so much scope to march around as they pleased. The fact that Trump was due to speak to them should have had alarm bells ringing.

    The only plausible explanation I can think of is that someone or some people deliberately organized things in a chaotic manner so that it would not be easy to respond.

    I expect it will be more difficult to do that a second time, but I’ll bet that other insurgents will be on the march soon.

  • edited January 2021
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  • Here are a couple of quotes from a video that some may find interesting/horrific/insightful/dismissable :)

    “… On New Year's Eve I did a live stream with a Black Lives Matter organizer from Utah and a Proud Boys chapter leader from Utah as well, who befriended each other over the summer, and started debating each other, and they struck up this friendship and they realized that they were fighting about all this other stuff but they had several points of commonality, of interest, when it came to police reform, prison reform, getting big money out of the elections, dealing with housing… you know they agreed on all of these fronts and yet they were fighting about political identification… “

    ————

    “I think the big hidden story here is that in some sense we are fiercely divided so that we will not be fiercely united, right? And this is this is why i started the Unity Movement. This is the exactly the danger i saw coming out of this election. And the idea is there is a general sense of frustration at, basically, the public being frozen out of the well-being that is generated by our system. Increasingly systematically frozen out by a pervasive culture of corruption, much of which is legal.

    And so the point is... if you have a legal culture of corruption that causes the government to do the bidding of those who can pay to have their bidding done, at the expense of the public, it will create massive unrest and distrust.

    And the fact that that unrest and distrust is divided into factions that are pointed at each other rather than there being a broad recognition that actually, yes, Americans have a right to be very angry with what has become of their governmental structure, and neither blue nor red is the solution to it.

    Blue and red are the problem, and how we Americans address that is a very difficult puzzle.”

    ————

    The quotes are from a video interview (a small segment of a much longer one) with a journalist (self described as being ‘from the cultural left) who studies protests and how they can provide cover for the various more extreme factions - both on the right and the left - and the different ideologies - from fairly mild to reprehensible - that end up there. And how sometimes at the extremes they are not so different (see also the horseshoe theory).

    He'd planned to be documenting an expected BLM/PB clash later in the day, but ended up documenting the Capitol breach instead.

    I've put my 2¢ worth in a few times here but I'm not reaaally following this thread much as these kind of discussions tend to distress me and raise my anxiety a bit.

  • edited January 2021

    @Max23 said:

    @michael_m said: but there are certainly a lot of questions as to why a large group of anti-government fanatics were allowed so much scope to march around as they pleased. The fact that Trump was due to speak to them should have had alarm bells ringing.

    they are his crowd
    thats exactly all the rubbish he talked about the last years
    anti-government, remember about the weird conspiracy about the "deep state" and "draining the swamp" all that rubbish ...
    and the racist stuff about Mexicans how they come over the border to bring drugs and rape woman
    they are his crowd
    how proud they are about that god damned wall
    they are his crowd

    I know they’re his people, but I meant the fact that he chose to address them in person in DC should have rung alarm bells that he would fire them up and they would be capable of more than a crowd that just had their own numbers speaking to each other.

    Everyone in DC must have known that he was going to pour gas on the fire.

  • “ So we’re going to, we’re going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue, I love Pennsylvania Avenue, and we’re going to the Capitol and we’re going to try and give … The Democrats are hopeless. They’re never voting for anything, not even one vote. But we’re going to try and give our Republicans, the weak ones, because the strong ones don’t need any of our help, we’re going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.

    So let’s walk down Pennsylvania Avenue. I want to thank you all. God bless you and God bless America. Thank you all for being here, this is incredible. Thank you very much. Thank you.”

    (While I skip-out on you fools and watch the destruction of democracy from the safety of the Oval Office!)

    “Did I mention I LOVE the uneducated?!?!?” 😉

  • @JeffChasteen said:

    @espiegel123 said:

    @BiancaNeve said:
    If you leave it all up to the popular vote you end up with a situation like in UK where English Tories are able to dictate to the other Countries in the Union by virtue of having a larger population. The interests of Midwest farmers are likely to be totally different from Californian computer engineers

    But why should midwest farmers have greater representation just because their viewpoint is different?

    For those that don't know, the origin of the electoral college (and most of the goofiest parts of our governance structure) was to ensure that states with chattel slavery could not have their right to enslave people taken away by people who disapproved.

    Sadly, this protection of state rights to discriminate still has a pretty profound influence on people's choices.

    Why should midwestern farmer have more of a say than people in California? Just because their minority view would not get a chance to rule the country is not a reason that THEY should rule the country.

    Within their state, they would still be setting up local policies. So, it isn't like losing a disproportionate voice electing the president will deny them any say in their lives. It will give their candidates incentive to be moderate.

    This. Exactly.

    It’s not about them having more say > @PeteSasqwax said:

    @TheOriginalPaulB said:
    In the UK we also have constituency borders that favour the right wing. Those borders get changed frequently by Tory governments to consolidate their position.

    Exactly this - and the only opportunity we had to rectify this (i.e. when Nick Clegg helped them form a coalition government) was thrown away along with any credibility the Liberal Democrats had.

    In my opinion it was the Labour Party that threw away their credibility then. The libdems entered the coalition in exchange for a referendum on proportional representation. Despite having called for pr for many years the Labour Party didn’t back the change result of which is that the Tories have been in charge ever since

  • edited January 2021
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  • @Max23 said:
    German channel 1 suggests Deutsche Bank last nail to the coffin of trump business

    its probably behind geo location filter
    so if you are not in Germany you wont see it

    I sometimes think not enough is made of this when considering Trump’s actions. He has been around all the loan sharks now, and none of them will entertain his run and take the money business practices anymore, as they end up not getting paid back.

  • edited January 2021
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  • @BiancaNeve said:

    @JeffChasteen said:
    Exactly this - and the only opportunity we had to rectify this (i.e. when Nick Clegg helped them form a coalition government) was thrown away along with any credibility the Liberal Democrats had.

    In my opinion it was the Labour Party that threw away their credibility then. The libdems entered the coalition in exchange for a referendum on proportional representation. Despite having called for pr for many years the Labour Party didn’t back the change result of which is that the Tories have been in charge ever since

    The LibDems were never very serious about going into coalition with Labour. Probably because the then leaders (the Orange Book contingent) were pretty right wing.

    The LibDems then went on to support a terrible government (thus cratering their reputation) and got for it a referendum on a change to voting that wasn't PR, was hard to understand and nobody had ever asked for. And thus it failed. Nick Clegg losing his seat and ending up an exec at Facebook was really the icing on the cake for that one.

    Even my mum, who was a long time member of Charter 88, was baffled by that one.

  • @michael_m said:

    @Max23 said:
    German channel 1 suggests Deutsche Bank last nail to the coffin of trump business

    its probably behind geo location filter
    so if you are not in Germany you wont see it

    I sometimes think not enough is made of this when considering Trump’s actions. He has been around all the loan sharks now, and none of them will entertain his run and take the money business practices anymore, as they end up not getting paid back.

    Possibly, though in this case the loanshark is themselves bankrupt, mired in scandal and jumping nervously every time they hear a car backfire. If he's sufficiently liquid and has assets to back them someone will roll over his loans. Bankers are a pretty cold-eyed bunch.

  • @SimonSomeone said:
    The quotes are from a video interview (a small segment of a much longer one) with a journalist (self described as being ‘from the cultural left) who studies protests and how they can provide cover for the various more extreme factions - both on the right and the left - and the different ideologies - from fairly mild to reprehensible - that end up there.

    Having never heard of the 'journalist' I did a little bit of research and he doesn't strike me as terribly credible. In fact 'journalist' seems like a stretch. So you can probably safely ignore everything he has to say.

    And how sometimes at the extremes they are not so different (see also the horseshoe theory).

    Horseshoe theory is bollocks. It's not a thing. Ironically what has happened repeatedly in the past (e.g. Italy and Germany) is that center parties have allied with far right parties to crush the left/communists.

  • @michael_m said:
    It seems like the appropriate security and military response has happened now, but there are certainly a lot of questions as to why a large group of anti-government fanatics were allowed so much scope to march around as they pleased. The fact that Trump was due to speak to them should have had alarm bells ringing.

    The only plausible explanation I can think of is that someone or some people deliberately organized things in a chaotic manner so that it would not be easy to respond.

    Well some people would be the capitol police leadership, who obviously made the choice to do nothing. That seems undeniable. The only explanations that make sense to me are:
    a) Somebody organized it because they're in sympathy. Presumably the chief of the capitol police.
    b) Somebody underestimated them because they have similar ideological views (my buddy's at the hunting club wouldn't do anything bad) - again chief of the capitol police.
    c) Somebody just didn't want to hurt people that they broadly agreed with

    They're all worrying, though the latter two seem more plausible based upon what facts we have now. And it's really hard to come to any conclusion other than the leadership supported, at least passively, the objectives of this mob.

    I expect it will be more difficult to do that a second time, but I’ll bet that other insurgents will be on the march soon.

    Maybe, but I don't think there are really that many insurgents, nor do they seem hugely competent. The Proud Boys and others represent a worrying tendency, but their numbers are tiny. The cops could shut them down in an instant if they wanted to.

    The worry is that nobody wants to, and maybe the bigger problem is that a lot of cops across the country support this movement. For example my friend's father in law is a retired chief of police (who I liked the one time I met him) and he supports Trump, but has rationalized this away with "AntiFa". I guess that's better than full support, but it's still insane.

  • @cian said:

    @michael_m said:

    @Max23 said:
    German channel 1 suggests Deutsche Bank last nail to the coffin of trump business

    its probably behind geo location filter
    so if you are not in Germany you wont see it

    I sometimes think not enough is made of this when considering Trump’s actions. He has been around all the loan sharks now, and none of them will entertain his run and take the money business practices anymore, as they end up not getting paid back.

    Possibly, though in this case the loanshark is themselves bankrupt, mired in scandal and jumping nervously every time they hear a car backfire. If he's sufficiently liquid and has assets to back them someone will roll over his loans. Bankers are a pretty cold-eyed bunch.

    I don’t think Deutschebank is bankrupt, they have just reached the point where they realize they will only ever make losses with him. Despite the huge amounts involved, his account is still peanuts compared to the overall assets that they have on their books.

    He doesn’t need liquidity to do what he does though - he’s made his money by being ridiculously over-leveraged and his backers have been greedy enough to ignore the risks associated with that.

  • @michael_m said:

    @cian said:

    @michael_m said:
    I sometimes think not enough is made of this when considering Trump’s actions. He has been around all the loan sharks now, and none of them will entertain his run and take the money business practices anymore, as they end up not getting paid back.

    Possibly, though in this case the loanshark is themselves bankrupt, mired in scandal and jumping nervously every time they hear a car backfire. If he's sufficiently liquid and has assets to back them someone will roll over his loans. Bankers are a pretty cold-eyed bunch.

    I don’t think Deutschebank is bankrupt, they have just reached the point where they realize they will only ever make losses with him. Despite the huge amounts involved, his account is still peanuts compared to the overall assets that they have on their books.

    Deutschebank as a whole is on life support from the German government and has been for a while, but the division that lent money to Trump is mired in scandal at the moment and lost a ton of money in dodgy deals. They are being unwound/shutdown. Trump is the least of their problems as they will probably get repaid one way or another.

    He doesn’t need liquidity to do what he does though - he’s made his money by being ridiculously over-leveraged and his backers have been greedy enough to ignore the risks associated with that.

    From what I've seen he looks like any other real estate guy. It tends to be an over-leveraged business (which is why so many of them go bankrupt whenever there's an economic downturn), but if the NYT's analysis was correct (and honestly tax records tend to understate assets and income for obvious reasons) he's illiquid, but has more than enough assets to cover his loans.

    Of course COVID may have changed that - but that's true of plenty of people. The hotel business is in serious trouble.

  • I'd add that I think a lot of people don't realize how typical Trump is of real estate guys. They're a pretty shady bunch generally.

  • edited January 2021
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  • @cian said:

    @michael_m said:

    @Max23 said:
    German channel 1 suggests Deutsche Bank last nail to the coffin of trump business

    its probably behind geo location filter
    so if you are not in Germany you wont see it

    I sometimes think not enough is made of this when considering Trump’s actions. He has been around all the loan sharks now, and none of them will entertain his run and take the money business practices anymore, as they end up not getting paid back.

    Possibly, though in this case the loanshark is themselves bankrupt, mired in scandal and jumping nervously every time they hear a car backfire. If he's sufficiently liquid and has assets to back them someone will roll over his loans. Bankers are a pretty cold-eyed bunch.

    Deutsche Bank Was very concerned from the moment Trump announced his run for President. They knew hordes of journalists would be digging into Donnie's financial dealings and many of those paths led directly to the corrupt division at their bank.

    Those leads let to the uncovering of other Deutsche Bank misdeeds and they tried to play-down their financial relationship with Trump to limit exposure to their other corrupt activities.

    Seeing this unfavorable exposure, Donnie's regular banking buddies cut him off, leading him to scrounge for money from tiny banks none had heard of — as Mother Jones Magazine pointed-out:

    "In May 2018, Trump borrowed $11.2 million from Professional Bank, a small bank based in Coral Cables, Florida, that specializes in small-business and construction lending. The money came via a 30-year mortgage and was used to purchase a home from Trump’s sister, Maryanne Barry Trump, adjacent to the president’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

    At the time it was an odd move—Trump had borrowed for decades from German financial giant Deutsche Bank and, more recently, from Wall Street lender Ladder Capital. Transferring his business to Professional, which was founded in 2008 and has only a handful of offices in South Florida, seemed like a step down. But Deutsche Bank reportedly told Trump in 2016 that it would no longer lend to him while he was running for elected office, and Deutsche Bank was later drawn into investigations related to the president’s finances."

    https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/01/another-bank-says-it-will-cut-ties-with-trump/

  • edited January 2021
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  • The "Auschwitz hoodie" man has been arrested.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/10/politics/man-camp-auschwitz-sweatshirt-capitol-riot-identified/index.html

    Also, an oral history of the Capitol attack has been published by 'The Hill'. I'm not familiar with the paper, but it claims to be nonpartisan - it's basically a point-of-view collage taken from different people who were there.
    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/533932-i-saw-my-life-flash-before-my-eyes-an-oral-history-of-the-capitol-attack

    This "armed march" plan is troubling, but just a storm I hope. If any forum members live a state capital, I hope you're not too freaked out by it. Stock up the fridge and maybe learn Drambo finally? Cities are big, and the gallows and guillotine crowd will all have their photos taken.

  • Trump is fairly insignificant to Deutsche's business. And the private banking business in the US is pretty tiny. It was run poorly and while I haven't followed it closely I'd guess that bonuses were linked to business expansion and this led to pretty reckless banker behavior (this is an incredibly common banking story - maybe THE story). Trump is embarrassing to them I'm sure, but their loans seem well secured if ill advised (the dodgy stuff people have pointed out seems pretty typical for private banking, which is an incredibly dodgy business). Have they broken the law? I mean probably - they're in the private banking business.

    Deutsche has been a punchline to banker jokes since the 2008 crisis. It's a zombie bank supported by the German state (who deny vociferously that they're doing any such thing because that would be ungerman I guess). Their US business is very small, which is probably why they were doing business with him in the process. Foreign banks often try to expand by taking on loans/business more established US banks don't want. This usually ends very badly.

    I'd be very surprised if Trump has trouble rolling his loans over, though he may be forced to sell some assets in the process (which he hates doing). If he does have problems it will be because post-COVID his assets are worth less than they were, or he has liquidity issues due to COVID.

    There's a lot of stuff with Trump where what's exposed is not so much his criminality/dodgy behavior, but the criminality/dodgy behavior of the billionaire/banking/real estate class as a whole. He's not THAT bad. Or rather he is bad, but by the standards of his peers he's pretty typical.

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  • @Max23 said:
    if they dont catch trump by other ways this obscure business stuff and not paying taxes could brake his neck.
    Time is up, Mr. Trump.

    While I'd love for this to happen, neither of these things are unusual unfortunately and they rarely lead to the outcome they should. The tax stuff just means he'll have to pay more taxes and will need to sell some assets. His obscure business stuff is legal, even if maybe it shouldn't be. The story isn't that Trump is a criminal - it's that he's a billionaire and billionaires are criminals.

  • edited January 2021
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  • @colonel_mustard said:
    This "armed march" plan is troubling, but just a storm I hope. If any forum members live a state capital, I hope you're not too freaked out by it. Stock up the fridge and maybe learn Drambo finally? Cities are big, and the gallows and guillotine crowd will all have their photos taken.

    I do, but we survived the 'protect the confederate flag' protests, so I'm sure we'll survive this. Half our capitol probably supported it anyway - Lindsey bloody Graham got in a plane with Trump, and Scott (an incredibly weird guy. I mean you'd expect a black Republican in SC to be weird, but he's weirder than that) is still defending him I think.

  • @cian said:

    @colonel_mustard said:
    This "armed march" plan is troubling, but just a storm I hope. If any forum members live a state capital, I hope you're not too freaked out by it. Stock up the fridge and maybe learn Drambo finally? Cities are big, and the gallows and guillotine crowd will all have their photos taken.

    I do, but we survived the 'protect the confederate flag' protests, so I'm sure we'll survive this. Half our capitol probably supported it anyway - Lindsey bloody Graham got in a plane with Trump, and Scott (an incredibly weird guy. I mean you'd expect a black Republican in SC to be weird, but he's weirder than that) is still defending him I think.

    So strange. What is it about Billionaires that makes people defend them so much?

  • @cian said:
    an incredibly weird guy. I mean you'd expect a black Republican in SC to be weird, but he's weirder than that

    Sounds weird! Gonna have to look him up now.

    In other (completely obvious) news:
    https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/11/republicans-who-relied-on-trump-for-news-more-concerned-than-other-republicans-about-election-fraud/

This discussion has been closed.