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The Russians have now taken it from what I understand, while the Ukrainians put the fire out in the meantime…
Thx for the update, I haven’t caught up with the latest events yet.
21st century Lord Haw Haw.
👍
I agree. I know it sounds silly now on day 8. I think Putin expected to have finished by day 10 and clearly he won’t get there. It will have to come to diplomacy now.
I cannot see how the war could continue this way. Putin will likely be in damage limitation mode now. I think the thing he is fearing the most now is the backlash from the Russian business class. It may well be the last element that will knock him down.
That would be the best outcome, but it doesn't seem likely after Putin's pronouncements yesterday (the Russian security council meeting and the call with Macron). He's doubling down and has made it perfectly clear that he won't stop until Ukraine is completely subjugated. He hasn't responded to any diplomatic efforts throughout this crisis, instead he continues to insist that Zelenski is a Nazi and that Ukraine is part of Russia.
I think Putin is playing tough for the audience but the sole fact that those meetings are taking place is a positive sign. He is not in the best position at the moment. Fight/flight/freeze mode. For now he’s decided to keep fighting but I think he will slowly come to realisation that the further he goes the harder it will be for him. Personal pride plays a huge role here I think.
I hope you're right, but it doesn't look promising. I'll see if I can locate his security council meeting, because it was not encouraging.
In the meantime:
Here we go, this was Putin yesterday:
Agreed @richardyot it doesn’t look good. He’s terrified of uprising at home. He’s literally fighting on two fronts.
While here in the West the propaganda machine roll’s on,
Sky News states Ukrainians where living in peace prior to the invasion - forgetting about the east of the country.
Blinken state NATO is a defensive organisation - forgetting about Afghanistan and Iraq.
In war the first casualty….same old, same old, same old system.
All true, but at least in the West you can counter the propaganda without ending up in jail.
True, but it’s the mainstream media that feeds the minds of our citizens, not ourselves or likeminded people, unfortunately.
Good article on how the sanctions will affect Russia's Central Bank:
https://www.ft.com/content/3f1c7151-93ed-48ff-a23c-496320919621
tl:dr: no transactions in dollars or euros, vast majority of Russia's accumulated foreign FX inaccessible, very likely to lead to private banks and supply chains collapsing.
This will have a major impact on the Russian economy.
There are no words that can adequately describe the idiocy of this monologue... (for those who can't access Twitter it's just Tucker Carlson being himself)
I'm not sure if this is part of the general contrarian shtick you seem to be playing on this thread or you mean to be funny, or whatever but the reality is that the HU government, which otherwise has an abysmal track record with refugees, has so far been doing (and letting its private citizens do) a remarkably decent job here.
I think part of the reason for the lack of large-scale racism is probably the fact that there are no big crowds like on the Polish border yet, so no need to push, noone tries to prioritise white refugees etc.
In any case, the fact is Hungary has welcomed almost 150k people from Ukraine so far, the second biggest number after Poland, with no major hiccups. But you do you mate, from the comfort of your home, wherever you are.
I don’t think I’m being a contrarian or whatever. I’m just pointing out inconvenient truths.
The truths are that Hungary, as well as Poland are both fairly (funny word) racist countries. There’s also quite a bit of religious intolerance and xenophobia without going into the unrelated LGBT+ rights etc.
Polish media are basking in this, especially the government television: TVP News. These days the news bulletins start with footage of Ukraine’s destruction with dramatic music and then all the refugee stuff.
It’s really sickening and is as if they were saying: look at us, we do care about the refugees, as long as they are similar to us. So we’re nice people and only just a bit racist. Of course the governments are in large part a reflection of the population.
I totally understand where all this comes from, it’s just a perfect combo of religion and terrorism narrative as well as the fact that dark skinned minorities have been for centuries mostly unseen on Polish streets.
Was referring to the audio, but yah, poor oligarchs.
no one should be surprised that things have gotten this bad in Ukraine. If your understanding is that Putin must think he miscalculated and be in some way humbled by the carnage, I suggest learning more about Putin. Think about the mind of someone who is comfortable having journalists and critics murdered.
I think there is a possibility that the cruelty is the point...that Putin hopes to create a humanitarian crisis that will draw NATO into intervening so that he can say "I told you so".
I don't see any good outcomes. And I think it is hard to forecast the the long-term impact of any of the possible outcomes.
I also think anyone focused primarily on the notion that NATO forced this on Putin, needs to re-think the complexity and of the world. It is possible for the U.S. and NATO to be corrosive and misguided AND for Putin to be a cruel despot with criminal impulses driven by an imperialist view of the world.
Putin is very good at playing into the priors of just enough people to possibly give him an edge.
I doubt he's personally bothered by the carnage (though it is a political problem), but this clearly wasn't the plan. The Russian army thought, probably based upon the Crimean 'war' of 2014, that the Ukrainian army would crumble. They used light troops that could be deployed quickly. Clearly this was a disaster for them, so they've reverted to the standard Russian army strategy for fighting wars. Which isn't that different from the way the US fights wars TBH. Wars are really bad, even the ones we kid ourselves are moral, or something.
I seriously doubt this. A big problem for Putin, particularly in Russian speaking areas, is that a considerable chunk of Russia doesn't see them as the enemy. It will probably become cruel because Russia obviously doesn't have a plan for dealing with civilian resistance, but if Russia wanted to be cruel it would be far far worse than this.
I don't see any evidence that Russia is trying to punish civilians. This just seems like collateral damage atm.
I guarantee you there are people in the State Department who planned for and wanted this. Currently they're doing victory laps. That doesn't make Putin any less of a criminal, but the US clearly wanted this.
Really? This just feels like the mystical 8 dimensional spymaster bullshit that people like to attach to him for some reason. I think Putin's limited success is more a reflection of how bad the west is at diplomacy/war, and his ability to exploit other people's mistakes.
I think a pretty good case can be made that in both the Brexit referendum and Trump's 2016 victory that the Russia's small influence (via a variety of mechanisms) may have played enough of a role to influence the outcome. They have quietly over the past decade been increasing their influence with the Right and the disaffected left (people like Jill Stein). Again, I emphasize that I am talking about edge cases where things are close.
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I think he's referring to stuff like the Azov brigades when he's talking about Nazis - and this is probably for a Russian audience. They are 100% neo-Nazis and extremely nasty (they are responsible for a bunch of war crimes in the Donbas for example). Also post 2014 the Ukranian state did bring neo-nazi militias into their army/police force, and relied upon them for fighting in the civil war. The Ukraine has also been doing stuff like renaming streets after Ukrainian Nazis, glorifying the WWI fascist Stephen Bandera and engaging in some seriously revisionist bullshit about WWII generally.
The counter to this of course is that the fascists did very badly in the last election, most Ukrainians are not Nazis and Zelenski certainly is not a fascist (even if he's just appointed Maxym Marchenko, who certainly is one, as the new governor of Odessa). And of course one could also make the point that Putin has been fairly happy to work with domestic Russian fascists so long as they're loyal to the state/useful.
If the war goes on, one of the likely outcomes is a whole bunch of western US, Candian, European) fascists will flood to the fascist militia to get training/experience. Which traditionally is not a thing that has ended well.
The stuff about Russia looked identical to what these Macedonian teenagers were doing - I've never understood why one is understood to have been just petty ad-farming, while the other was apparently an attempt to steal an election. And none of the stuff about Trump being a Russian asset was true. So I guess that leaves the hacking of the DNC (which could have been anyone - it wasn't particularly sophisticated). That whole narrative was kind of a liberal version of QAnon. Very strange time in retrospect.
It was the Sun (and the rest of the UK media) that was responsible for Brexit. That's just the British chattering classes trying to deny their own responsibility. 30+ years of lies about straight bananas, and we're going to blame Putin? Sure, whatevs. I'm really not convinced that Aaron Banks getting a bit of money from dodgy Russian oligarchs is what made that one happen. I think it was the Daily Mail and Rupert bloody Murdoch.
Both of these narratives have something in common. An establishment (the DNC/Hillary Clinton, or the British elite) refusing to admit their culpability in a disaster of their own making. So they came up with a weird conspiracy theory to blame Russia. And it worked, so I guess good for them.
@cian Putin in his speech yesterday specifically described the Ukrainian government as “drug dealers and nazis”. He’s not using the level of nuance that you attribute to him.
I think you are mis-reading the de-nazification rhetoric. My understanding is that Putin and his cronies have for years floated their belief that a neo-nazi cabal controls Ukraine and that Zelensky is their puppet.
p.s. If you ever finding yourself thinking "NATO mostly created this situation." Remind yourself that for years, Putin has said that Ukraine is not a legitimate country and should be part of Russia..and he was not talking just about the eastern provinces.
This is not to say that NATO doesn't play into the dynamic. I think that some people misattribute Putin's imperialism as a response to events during his tenure.
Zelensky's only been in power since 2019 and the Nazi rhetoric goes back to 2014, which is also when Ukrainian neofascists were on the political ascendant. I have no idea what Putin and his circle believe, because they have a fairly cynical attitude to the truth. However the Ukraine has certainly given them a lot to work with. Pro-tip - if you don't want your enemies to accuse you or being Nazis, don't glorify actual Nazis, or appoint them to military/governmental positions.
I don't think that's a thing that I said. If I did say it then it was careless writing on my part. I may have said that the exact situation that preceded the invasion was of the US's doing, which it was. The US resisted all attempts to tone down the rhetoric and have a serious negotiation. Maybe the war could have been averted if that hadn't happened.
Russia was not attempting to invade Russia ten years ago, and it would have been far easier for them to have done so then. So presumably something has changed.
For this to be true Russia's relationship with the Ukraine would have to have been unchanging over the past 20 years, which simply isn't the case. At one point the Ukraine was propped up financially by Russia (subsidized gas and they gave them very cheap loans which have never been repaid). There are a lot of reasons for that (the civil war making the Russian public more hostile to Ukraine, NATO expansion, what went down in 2014 and anti Russian rhetoric from Ukrainian leaders) - and I suspect small things (such as Ukraine stealing Russian gas, and refusing to pay back their loan) probably didn't help.
I didn't say he was using nuance, or that his version of events was particularly true. I'm merely pointing out that it's not pure fabrication - there is some truth there.
With respect, you're making some valid points but you're also missing my point entirely.
If the roof was the general track record of these two countries, we wouldn't have an argument (I even mentioned that in my previous comment).
That's not the case though. Poland and Hungary are currently getting close to accepting and helping half a million refugees between them. Finally, they are doing something right. My company is a tiny bit involved in helping out, and I can see the amazing effort the people of these countries are putting in every day. Your reaction to that: a "you're racist lol" cartoon.
I mean, sure. Whatever floats your boat, man. Maybe you could see it differently, but I'm not trying to convince you.