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Off-Topic discussion about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
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Part 2:
If anyone doubts whether nations can run large deficits and decades-long QE programmes without risking significant inflation, just look at Japan.
What about Zimbabwe/Weimar/Venezuela?
Nations that experience hyperinflation are usually in the midst of a supply shock. For example in Zimbabwe the white farmers were expelled from their land and replaced with army veterans who had no experience in farming. The result was a complete collapse in food production, and the state tried to compensate by increasing the money supply, with disastrous results.
Weimar and Venezuela both faced sanctions as well as a collapse in domestic production, with similar results.
Another form of supply shock can result in cost-push inflation, when the price of an imported commodity rises for example. This is what happened in the 1970s when the OPEC nations increased the price of oil by 400% over two years. Because oil was the primary commodity for Western economies the result was inflation running at 25% for several years as the rising price of oil impacted the rest of the economy.
how this is related to his Bitcoin opinions in any way ? Like if somebody is wrong in topic A, it should be used as proof he is wrong also in totally unrealated topic B ?
How this is related to his Bitcoin opinions in any way ? He did something wrong, he paid for it.
For example current president of European Central Bank (Christine Lagarde) is convicted criminal, she was part of 400 million euro fraud, and was not sent into jail from still not clearly known reasons. Which is MUCH worse than what Saylor did (or did not, it is lot more complicated). Like president of central bank convicted from 400M financial negligence. True horror.
This is classic method of argumentation of every Bitcoin opponent :-D As soon as anybody is in any way involved in Bitcoin, he is "biased" and his arguments should be dismissed. This totally makes no sense because then only valid arguments would be from those who have no idea about Bitcoin. Which is colosal nonsense.
It's like to state physicist working in Cern are too biased to be taken seriously regarding their opinion about particle physics, because, you know, they are working with particle accelerator :-D
Btw. also Saylor was Bitcoin oponent, and it was not that long time ago. He then just did deep study on topic and changed opinion. Like lot of us (most of us) who realy studied topic.
But ok, if Saylor is not enough serious for you, what about Ross Stevens, CEO of Stone Ridge , fund which is managing more than $25b investments. In this interview Saylor is just interviewer, most of time Stevens is talking about his Bitcoin opinions
I don’t think BTC is really a true bubble, although it exhibits a lot of bubble-like characteristics. It is about as much a bubble as, for example, the fine art market, which I definitely see as a bubble, but a very stable one, not about to pop any time for no reason. But it could.
I think that's a pretty apt analogy. Fine art, rare wine, baseball cards etc... are all speculative investments that don't produce any kind of yield and therefore can only be profitable if the price goes up. That's exactly what Bitcoin is. Some people get lucky, but essentially it's gambling.
I actullly think Bitcoin IS buble. Also all fiat money are bubble. Real estate market is bubble too.. Stock market is bubble. Don't think bubble is primary bad thing, in case it is sustainable, in case it has process to releases a bit of pressure, to decrease tension, to allow another growth.
Bubbles are ok, if something is bubble doesn't mean it has to pop. It just needs some security valve to decrese critical pressure. Bitcoin has such valve (it was used in recent 2 weeks).
Unfortunately, i'm afraid fiat money doesn't have such security valve, they are is inflated to infinity (*as it was said by FED president "there is infinite amount of money in FED, we can print them forever") by central banks so it will pop. It already did pop and pooped on citizens in many countries :-D
99% of people who bought bitcoin during last 12 years and didn't sold it are now in profit (except of people who bought between 9.march and 22. april this year - but this will change very soon ;-))) ...
During last 12 years, Bitcoin has in average 200% valuation per year. Doesn't sound like gamble to me, more like very assymetric long-term asset :-D
Gamble is dogecoin. Or NFTs. Or state social system - that is bubble which will pop with 100% propability. Comparing to other asstes, Bitcoin looks to me like safe long-term investment.
Yah, I just think the guy doesn’t care, not that he is ‘wrong’. One man’s crisis is another man’s evening on the bondage rack. He said something like at worst covid would lower the overall average human lifespan by a couple weeks.
‘So we have something like 8 billion people on the planet, maybe four million dead... average person lives 4000 weeks, hhmmmm, carry the three.... mmm, Meh, another martini!’
OT sry Edit: Uhhh, oh ummm, I knew a guy who was really into bitcoin.
Ok, i agree he is like robot :-)))) , i think he doesn't care much about emotions, not sure if i has any level of empathy
) - he is engineer, he is looking at everything in mechanically / statistical way. Which is totally NOT OK when it comes to people lives, i agree, but it's very much OK when it comes to technical things (like bitcoin).
Haha. Here’s the thing. One does not need to be a “Bitcoin believer,” all they need to do is look at the facts. What is the average rate of return one gets from a savings account these days and what is the average rate of return from Bitcoin (or a mix of other crypto assets)? Investigate this and a person can easily make a logical and unemotional decision about where their money should be going these days.
But of course the rate return for an investment in crypto can be negative. See Bitcoin over the last week, or Dogecoin the week before.
The reason money in the bank has a low rate of return is because it’s safe there. Crypto is a much riskier bet, with no guarantee of returns.
Richard, if you (or anyone else) is “investing” on a week-to-week basis, that’s not “investing,” that’s gambling. Investing involves 1, 5, 10-year timelines. Daytrading is a sport for people who like to lose money. I don’t like to lose money. I used to lose money in the stock market, then I figured it out. To avoid losing money, never invest more than you can afford to lose 100%. Find a strategy that works for you.
I like that you’re a critic of all this. It shows you’re still thinking about it. I was a critic until all of my criticisms were answered with real results.
Absolutely, but crypto is very volatile, the recent bull run could end at any moment and crash like 2017, in which case anyone who invests now is at risk of losing their shirt.
No one knows the future, including me, but the risk is that Bitcoin could go up or down. I personally think it's a bubble that will pop, but of course I could be wrong. I've had an interest in Bitcoin for a few years, and I've followed this latest bull run pretty closely, so it's an educated guess.
You’re an informed person, so I won’t presume to know your exact situation. Have you thought about putting a small amount into something and then tracking it? That’s how I start with all of my investments. My first crypto purchases were in the $50-100 range. I watched them for months before I decided to commit more.
Nice idea, but I don't think the time is right as my nose says we're near the peak.
Of course to anyone who has made money I say "well done", but maybe consider cashing out as gains are only real when they're realised. Beeple didn't mess around, converted his Ether straight to fiat
To be honest, i feel bad for any money i have stored as fiat :-) I don't plan to "cash out" anytime soon, my only goal is to stack as much satoshi as possible. I have very good income which covers all my expenses + i can afford to buy some toys occasionally
) My current strategy is i buy every month a little bit of BTC (it's called DCA - dollar costs averaging), usually 5-10% of my paycheck, and i absolutely don't care about price - it's my long term strategy for next 10 years ..
I’m a satoshi stacker myself, and have a little XRP i bought on a whim when it was dirt cheap.both are long term holds, I take a little off the top here and there but always keep 80% or more of my portfolio as LONG game holds (decade minimum)
I've just checked, my BTC is worth 88 pence now.
Bitcoin and Etherium are no better or worse than my average investment. I've made a bunch of bad calls. I've made a few pretty good ones. I'm getting better over time.
Every investment I've made has had "bubbles" worse than what @richardyot seems to think is the current death-knell of Bitcoin. Every damn one of the is "gambling" to some extent, but it's not just throwing dice or flipping a coin. One can learn how to increase the odds.
I risk no more than I can afford to lose and it has been an interesting journey. TBH, I'm only a little up over what I've invested overall after finally recovering from my first disastrous learning curve.
On the other hand. Had I invested all that in Bitcoin when I started? I'd be buying a home right now instead of looking for my next rental. (Not saying that's what anyone should do, only what I wish I had done.
)
In the case of Beeple, he was paid by an NFT connected outfit. Of COURSE he should’ve cashed out immediately.
I’ve done OK in the stock market (so far), but there are few opportunities in life with the growth curve of cryptos. There was the “dot bomb” collapse in the late Nineties and I lost a couple of large chunks of money in that mess, but as happens with many of these crashes, the speculators and gamblers move in first, there are panics and sell offs, then there is ultimately wider adoption if the new thing is valuable beyond its initial speculative market. Bitcoin has been around 12 years and has faced numerous bubbles and panics. It’s now in the wider adoption phase as a hedge against inflation.
sounds like you are looking for people to say something positive about bitcoin ;-)
i am looking for people to say something negative in an informative way.
there are way too many ppl on the positive side. so I try to balance it out.
if there were to few ppl giving it a negative rap then I would post something positive.
Haha. No, I’ve known about Peter Schiff a long time and he has been an eternal gold bug and someone who has been eternally warning about hyperinflation.
Peter Schiff, famous bullish indicator, almost everytime he does shitpost abot bitcoin, price goes up.. I even tried once do short-term trade based on his post about bitcoin going down (i bought) and ended with significant profit
Ha. He is to crypto what Jim Cramer is to the stock market. They are both counter-indicators of market activity.
That's the guy who recently claimed he sold half of his bitcoin bag to pay mortgage ??
Very "not smart", would never take any financial advice from somebody who did such dumb move 
Those Bitcoin exchanges - how similar are they to stock exchanges? Can you quickly sell your stake using stop-limit orders when it all comes crashing down?
When network traffic gets very heavy, it’s not uncommon for a stock brokerage OR a crypto exchange to become overloaded and even go offline. That has happened to me in both cases. When people are panic selling, you should be buying anyway (unless a business is going under, of course).
Also, many people who hold a large amount of crypto keep their investments offline in a hardware wallet, an air-gapped hard drive or computer, or even as printed paper (the codes are printed on paper) instead of kept with an exchange. And cryptos can still be bought and sold without the use of an exchange. One of the earliest ways to do so was with the use of this site: https://localbitcoins.com/
interesting article, indirectly related to bitcoin (because of it's narrative as hedge against inflation)
This another, hidden face of inflation.. i'm observing this for last 10 years and it's getting worse and worse...
Another reason why CPI used as measure of inflation is one big bullshit and real inflation is much worse.
https://tftc.io/martys-bent/issue-978-shrinkflation-is-here-too/
A country that is currently (on paper) nearly $30 trillion in debt isn’t going to recover from that kind of profligacy. Possibly ever. It’s unrepayable debt. Maybe the only way the US avoids going down the tubes is if they follow China’s example and buy Bitcoin up like crazy also.
Silly boy. They can just borrow more to avoid default when they can no longer afford to pay the interest.
Don't your credit cards work that way?