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FYI:
https://www.thewellnessseeker.com/coronavirus-treatment-covid-19-natural-treatment/
BTW... I see Big Pharma has his 'agents' out and about discrediting mother nature... I guess they are coming in for the kill, shameless as they are..
There is still very limited data about whether hydrochloroquine is effective.
I would be cautious about making strong claims at this point about anything as a remedy without pretty strong evidence. It is also worth noting that herbal remedy promoters are not necessarily angels -- they often promote substances of limited effectiveness in search of profits -- just like big pharma.
Try to take this information in without using those Xenophobic filters and just a global perspective. How the virus moves in waves:
Just got off the phone with my 2nd daughter with a 4 month old infant. She has symptoms BUT they are mild. Her husband works double shifts at the US Border to mexico. In other words with the public. Fuck that crap about people who here to work taking jobs from Americans.
A Border Agent can't avoid exposure and they can't keep enough supplies of PPE on hand to try... so... it was only a matter of time really. At home he has been acting like he has it and taking precautions but here we are. Mom and baby probably have it. Sooner than later is better for my peace of mind to get a spot at the hospital if needed.
I believe we all must takes this test... it would be nice to believe there will be spots in an ICU if needed but maybe NOT or maybe we don't meet the criteria for prioritization. My wife and I do NOT. I wanted to take the test early but we can hold out for a long time.
Still, we will all have to run the gauntlet to immunity to be able to change behaviors and have some peace of mind.
The facts on the ground may change. The India-based home test for antibodies will help confirm it's come and gone. So, there's that good news. If the technology of the test is shared it should become wide spread ASAP... maybe in a month or 3.
@espiegel123, you are most certainly correct. The 1918 flu came back stronger and did much more damage in the second and third waves.
@McD, eighteen months is for the bureaucratic process. Any vaccine can be delivered much quicker if we are willing to take more risk (as we discussed on the vent thread). Let gates build his five vaccine factories and let the results speak for themselves without the usual American obsessiveness. Just my opinion, of course.
I guess, growing in the botanical culture as I have grown, it’s a natural.. It is only recently society has come to terms with Cannabis.. They used to lock your ass up for having it not too long ago..
BTW, I bought a packet of Cinchona for like $1.50.. don’t think one can profit much from those prices..
edit.. sorry, it was $.99
You realize the virus has a death rate of 1-2%? So, what if a rushed vaccine doubles the death rate because it had some effects in the 1-2 range? Sometimes a bureaucracy houses
subject matter expertise that can assess risks based upon 20 years of experience. Please don't assume they are always the real problem... Trump did that and just cleaned house of all expertise in favor of jobs for big donors and their kids. The people he has hired have no resume for their roles.
@mcd, I don’t think that would happen. According to that essay you could immediately make it worthwhile for a thousand people to risk being guinea pigs and see if there were significant problems. I certainly know nothing about it, but if you are someone in power I think it is worth not blindly accepting that there is only one way to get the job done. Besides in the extra year or two it could take who knows how many will die?
US population: 327.2 million
Global Population: 7.58 billion
Maybe 60% get it?
US 192M
Global 4.5B
1% death rate?
US: 2M
Global: 45M
So manufacture and distribute to 4.7B or some large fraction?
There will be other consequences to manage in parallel: famines, wars, IOS bugs.
@McD, over what period of time will 60% get it? Lots of speculation here no matter what road you go down. All I know is until there is a vaccine me and my ex wife GF can’t go into a store or reopen business due to age and preexisting conditions..So that is 1-2 years. I am guessing that is the same case for you?
How long is a function of the rate of transmission in the "If You Read One Thing... article".
Low rate of transmission then up to 2 years. High rates: 50+M dead globally in 6-8 months maybe?
This is why experts are frantic for data to improve the accuracy of projections and improve the planning to do less damage to the world order. That 50M is just from Covid-19.
Maybe we'll accept these results and move on to lessons learned and do better next time to contain it early and effectively.
Maybe a global effort for virus detection and emergency management?
FYI: Global warming is melting the permafrost and releasing ancient viruses. Bats carry a huge number of cataloged Corona Virus variations
already. Why bats? Because they hit it out of the ball park.
I would cite sources but I confuse all these threads I read here. Is this
the Drambo infection thread? It has a kill rate of about 3% of my brain cells
in just a few days.
@LinearLineman : you seem to be making assumptions that the reasons that it will likely take 18 months or more to develop and deploy a vaccine are primarily bureaucratic red-tape. 18 months would be incredibly fast from the start of work to manufactured vaccine.
I’d be cautious for those of us not knowledgeable of the intricacies of the sign to second guess what seems to be a a pretty strong consensus among people with a vested interest in seeing this happen fast just because we don’t understand why it might take 18 months.
Here are some articles that discuss some of the issues involved in getting this done:
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctor-note-long-covid-19-vaccine-200403163646558.html
https://www.sciencealert.com/who-says-a-coronavirus-vaccine-is-18-months-away
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/why-a-coronavirus-vaccine-takes-over-a-year-to-produce-and-why-that-is-incredibly-fast/
I started to what a video on YouTube by an academic that is 1 hour long. It detailed
the cellular details of viruses and their replication in the human body and it quickly became apparent:
This is one of those 10,000 hour level science fields where we are just in the initial stages
of solving these types of bio-pharma problems. Many labs and minds on the problem are
the best hope for a breakthrough to identify an effective treatment. Maybe we'll get lucky and find our way faster than 2 years to mass manufacturing, distribution and treatment.
But without a treatment plan we will take our losses and re-group for the next event.
Two studies about possible correlation (or even causality) between severe / fatal covid cases and ACE-inhibitors/ ABRs (they are used in many hypertension, cholesterol and diabetes cures) .. very interesting (and very alarming in case it is true)
https://thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1bE2Z09gKtFDQVZZ1IA6ulUijs8EPBhr7SLTWrsYOI7S8Yu0DeChFPMIY
https://cebm.net/covid-19/angiotensin-converting-enzyme-ace-inhibitors-and-angiotensin-receptor-blockers-in-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR18hX6380VSaJfseubJKoINV6rZbKQEXyO1RRBFWNkM5-UNgyS5Rs07PfI
Cross species further transmission, not a good sign, a tiger in Bronx Zoo.
Interesting read on the potential viability (or not) of Hydroxychloroquine:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/06/hydroxychloroquine-update-for-april-6
Basically since the mortality rate of the virus is low, it's very difficult to establish the statistical significance of any treatment. The initial study in Marseille only had 26 patients, so most of them would have recovered anyway. Again, the only sensible way to approach this is to keep an open mind, and respect the truth, whichever way it falls.
The odds of survival are being re-assessed as more data is coming in:
source: Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
The number of people infected has been undetermined due to a lack of testing
so the models only counted those with symptoms requiring attention. Which means the
percentages of inflected population was too low but many were slipping past the turnstiles to be counted in the early months.
My personal odds look pretty good. All that focus my Registered Nurse wife has had on
longevity will pay off to help me compete in my age group. COPD sufferers will really pay for ignoring the surgeon general's labeling.
Assessment of lethality right now are very hard to make accurately, quite a few articles have been written in the last two weeks about the likelihood that “excess death” corresponding to the pandemic is likely quite a bit higher (possibly you a factor fri 2 to as much as 10 times higher in some places) than are being recorded. There was an article yesterday indicating that the number of people that die at home averages 20-25 per day but recently has risen to 200-250 per day...and none of those deaths show up as being COVID related.
From what I’ve read, it will probably be a year before we have accurate estimates. I posted some articles about the topic in the other thread last week.
Interesting article about testing wastewater to Gauguin community spread of COVID-19
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/07/new-research-wastewater-community-spread-covid-19/
Pre-print of paper whose data suggests a significant minority of people that recover from covid-19
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about#click=https://t.co/DxgEzccmWX
It has come to a political issue as it was in Alexander Hamilton’s Yellow Fever Time.. Basically the same drug... The Bark treatment... The West Indian Treatment..
In the UK now an advisory from the veterinary profession for cat owners to keep them inside during the virus threat period.
Indeed. Stores have been increasingly short of fresh meat.
So far, the evidence is still not strong that hydrochloriquine of quinine are effective against coronavirus. A few articles have been posted about that.
Perhaps, they will be helpful, but so far the evidence is not compelling.
It really does not matter to me.. I grew up drinking the darn thing.. and I’m rediscovering what a healthy satisfying drink it is...
https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/michigan-democrat-says-hydroxychloroquine-saved-her-life/
Drink it if you want. That article is the definition of an anecdote. A person attributing something to their recovery doesn't make it the actual source of their recovery.
It really is worthwhile for people to read the articles critiquing the chloroquine/coronavirus studies to date (posted earlier), they provide some insights that aren't obvious as to why you actually need a well-designed study and analysis done by people that understand the math to know what a study does or doesn't tell you.
Interesting read about infection rates in the US:
http://systrom.com/blog/the-metric-we-need-to-manage-covid-19/
Thanks for posting, but something that I didn't see mentioned (but perhaps I overlooked it) is that there is not enough testing nor consistent levels of testing in various regions to know how many cases there are or how rapidly case loads are changing. In California, for instance, there is still a test shortage and not all people suspected of being infected are being tested.
Epidemiologists here chatter about which metrics they can use to gauge the changes in case rate in a useful way. Some extrapolate from some combimation of hospital admission data and deaths and test results.
It is one of the biggest frustrations of the public health folks that there hasn't been a effect centralized effort to get the testing in place to accurately assess the viral spread. It is essential for knowing when it is safe to loosen restrictions and when to lock down hot spots.
In Northern California, they ratcheted up restrictions about 20 days ago because while curve has flattened , the transmission rate was still too high.
No the data is incomplete, this is mentioned on the Twitter thread the article was linked from.