Audiobus: Use your music apps together.
What is Audiobus? — Audiobus is an award-winning music app for iPhone and iPad which lets you use your other music apps together. Chain effects on your favourite synth, run the output of apps or Audio Units into an app like GarageBand or Loopy, or select a different audio interface output for each app. Route MIDI between apps — drive a synth from a MIDI sequencer, or add an arpeggiator to your MIDI keyboard — or sync with your external MIDI gear. And control your entire setup from a MIDI controller.
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since the overwhelming majority of the open cases are reported as mild, one can't get a realistic mortality rate without taking them into consideration at this point. given that epidemiologists are in overwhelming agreement that actual number of cases are probably at least double (and possibly quite a bit higher), none of them that I have heard speak or seen interviewed think that the real mortality rate is anything like the 6% you get from only looking at the closed cases. Most of them think it will be lower than the 3.4% you get by comparing deaths to identified cases even though that is (as you point at) not a clean way of computing since it includes people who are still sick. Given where we are, there is no way of coming up with a definitive accurate number -- the question is what method of estimation gives a sense of what is really going on.
I haven't seen anyone in the field suggest that that real picture is as dire as a 6% overall mortality rate. Though, I guess we will have a better sense in a few months.
@Max23 : nearby Stanford University just cancelled in-person classes and meetings for at least the next two weeks. Other universities preparing to do the same.
I agree that the lack of data is scary...even if the mortality rate is quite a bit lower, the disruptions to economies may be significant as things shutdown to slow transmission rates.
I was just reading that a large percentage of the drugs produced rely on chemicals manufactured in China and that even short-term factory shutdowns will have an impact.
The WHO hasn’t declared it a pandemic yet, probably wary of the ‘fear factor’ that doing so will entail, yet pandemic it is. The troubling thing even going with the least severe statistical data, the number of people in a severe or critical condition caused by the virus, would put even the best healthcare systems under severe stress.
@Max23, I still believe what you are saying suggests you are unaware of the distinction between closed case fatality rate and total case fatality rate. Likewise I imagine, the difference between case fatality rate and mortality rate.
You say there has been a jump from 2% to 6% but that simply isn’t the case. The 2% figure was the original total case fatality rate whereas the 6% is the closed case fatality rate - those cases that have resulted in either full recovery or death. 3.4% is the current total case fatality rate so yes it has increased but only by 1.4%.
Everywhere I look, media outlets are failing to make the distinction between case fatality rate and mortality rate. So I am seeing the 3.4% case fatality ratio compared to the 0.1% mortality rate for the flu. This is highly misleading. One relates to the rate of death in known infections. The other is an estimate of the fatality rate in the at risk population which is much less due to the sheer number of mild or asymptomatic infections which are never diagnosed . Currently it is estimated that as many as 80% of infections fall into that category.
As @espiegel123 says above, the figures for South Korea bear this out, 140,000 people have been tested of which 6593 proved positive. Of those 6593 cases , 42 were fatal - a case fatality ratio of 0.6%. But if you factor in the number of tests, the mortality rate (for that population sample) would be 0.03 %. The numbers there have shown (and contrary to what you have surmised above) that the likelihood is that the greater the number of people tested the smaller the case fatality ratio becomes.That is why the current estimated mortality rate is between O.1 and 1 percent or between 1 in 1000 and 1 in 100 and may well be at the lower end of that scale.
Of course these are best estimates - only time will tell how this plays out and it pays for all of us, especially those in higher risk age groups or with underlying medical conditions to take all possible precautions against infection or its spread.
Now if you think we are being fed false figures, that’s another matter altogether but the numbers as they stand tell a different story to the one you are promulgating.
Here are some links to articles which should help clarify the distinction further:
https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-country-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
Edit. Mmmm. The more I look into this the more confusing the picture gets. The Flu case death rate get’s mistakenly referred to as the mortality rate. In epidemiology language the terms death rate (i.e case death rate) and mortality rate are not interchangeable.
Here for example only 3 days ago the LA Times compares the numbers for the Covid 19 case death rate to the flu mortality rate:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-03/six-dead-coronavirus-kirkland-seattle-california-cases
But it looks like they have used figures for the flu case death rate and called them the mortality rate.
I’m tired and going to get back to washing my hands and making music.....
Here’s an article about a pandemic model exercise that was conducted last year to try and develop more information about how policy makers could prepare for and mitigate their impact. It compares what happened in their simulation with what’s been happening during the response to the spread of the corona virus.
@Max23 : I keep hearing epidemiologists that know the math saying essentially: the nature of the data at early stages (and indicating that it will be at least months before the data starts being clear) is such that we don't know very much and would be unwise to guess because it could easily be a better or worse situation than the current numbers indicate).
Hopefully, the emerging data will be honest. In the meantime, taking reasonable precautions seems wise and not panicking or feeding panic.
Fear is the mind killer.
Saw this earlier, far far better than happy birthday, or Dog forbid the dirge of a national anthem...
For sure this Corona virus is changing our "social life" more than we think right now and it will get worse.
Depending from what region you come also people will look at you different now.
Some people from Japan get rejected from a soccer game in Germany. We do not have to talk why that happens. This are just the little things starting right now.
We all know panic is the more dominant feeling as helping others. Sadly.
Pharma concerns and those who sell masks (which are nearly useless anyway) making the big cut and sure are happy if Corona spreads more.
@Max123, fair enough but the closed case figure is not the one to look at for a true idea of the fatality ratio or the mortality rate. As I said, now is definitely not the time for complacency but we also need to be careful about generating fear around the numbers of dead. Anyway I think we’re all agreed that we won’t really have a clear idea of the figures until this thing truly explodes which it clearly is on the verge of doing.
I went out to a reasonably large public place for a birthday lunch today. First time I’ve really been out since this started as I’ve effectively been self isolating at home with crippling sciatica for the last 6 weeks. It really struck me how many are the opportunities for infection spread in these scenarios. You go to the washroom to scrub your hands before eating, Then, if you have no antibacterial gel with you, you have to remember not to open the door with your hand as who knows how many unwashed hands have been on that handle. Then back to the table and look at the cutlery . When was the last time the person that laid the table washed their hands....etc etc. All around me people were scratching an itch on their noses or putting their hands to their mouths. I just don’t think people can change their ingrained habits fast enough.
I guess we’ll know how the story pans out around Easter. Praise the Lord ! :-)
and the hikikomori shall inherit the earth...
I was taught not to immanentize the eschaton. It leads to bad decision making on assumptions.
Stay open to the range possibilities in uncertain times. Hope for the best while preparing for the worst.
At some point the healthy might start to consider how to improve the odds of the least of us to have a future.
Maybe this is a harsh lesson in Darwin's cruel science but we can avoid tilting the table.
When I see someone healthy walking down the street wearing a mask that's good for 5 hours I imagine some healthcare worker being told "we have no more masks... our order is expected late next week". Yet they will still continue to care for infected patients. Trying to help but risking a lot.
It's hard to guide a mob towards wisdom and when they are afraid they make bad decisions as a group: reinforcing each other's behavior. Atticus Finch moments will help.
Fear kills a lot more than 1 brain unfortunately. We are all in this together. Seek ways to improve the future even if in very small ways.
Do not despair... but grieving is OK if you have few regrets.
But what if you have emergency and get there:
When I go supermarket shopping now I take a tablet pen to tap my details into the ‘scan and go’ screen. I then have a couple of anti bacterial wipes on hand to pick up the handset and clean it with before proceeding. I don’t use a trolley, I just put the goods not my own bag.
Apple Pay on my Apple Watch. For everything. Oyster, shops, everything.
Philadelphia Streetcar circa the Spanish Flu....
Italy now quarantines 16 million, the virus has mutated, but not more severely and it’s about 4 times more transmissible as normal flu, reported from the BBC.
Not looking good is it.
I read positive reports, lots of don’t panic stuff, then you read another that scares the bones out of you.
We had a load of power cuts here yesterday, so I spent most of the day fixing my pc. Had a relaxing evening in front of the telly, and pretty much forgot about it.
Then you wake up and read the news, and it gets scary again.
How one man and a virus started a herbalist revolution.
I found this pretty informative
https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2020/03/stop-panic-coronavirus-200307190646570.html
“Why do I thrash about, why do I fuss inside this narrow, limited frame, when life, the whole of life, with all its joys, is open to me?”
Leo Tolstoy
My view on masks: This virus is spread by coughing and sneezing among other things. The transmission can occur through particulate transference. Simply wearing a mask could potentially impede the spread by suppressing the exposure of others to an undiagnosed carrier and possibly ingesting it if you work in close contact with others who may speak, cough, or sneeze.
Here at work i have tons of masks....so i could get rich now