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OT: Positive advice for dealing with Covid-19 (no politics or complaints about governance please)

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Comments

  • edited March 2020

    @mungbeans said:
    @ecstaticax said:

    Coronavirus is a normal flu.

    So is this epidemics expert lying or mis-informed when they say its 20 times more deadly than flu?

    " The case fatality rate – the proportion of cases that are fatal – has been just over 2%, much less than it was for Sars, but 20 times that of seasonal flu."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/the-worst-case-scenario-for-coronavirus-dr-jonathan-quick-q-and-a-laura-spinney

    90% people got it without symptoms. If you a have a base of 1000 people and 10 die, it's 0.1% 1% death rate. If you check 100 people and 10 die, it's 10% death rate.
    Actually CoronaVirus is 99% propaganda and 1% reality.

    Being duped by propaganda is much worse than ignorance: "a lie repeated 1000 times becomes true" as J.Goebbels said. This is a typical example.

  • @ecstaticax 10 out of 1000 is 1% not 0.1%

  • @espiegel123 said:
    @ecstaticax 10 out of 1000 is 1% not 0.1%

    Technically you’re right ;)
    I like the 99% propaganda 1% reality theory though

  • @espiegel123 said:
    @ecstaticax 10 out of 1000 is 1% not 0.1%

    Thanks, I change the post.

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  • edited March 2020

    Actually @ecstaticax has a very good point (which seems to be ignored by popular media). It can be assumed** that a huge percentage of those infected do not feel ill enough to go to a doctor. And even those that do visit the doctor may not exhibit symptoms that trigger the care provider to do a COVID-19 test. So that leaves a very small number of total infected persons who make up the 100% of patients tested positive.

    All that means is:

    2% mortality of positive-tested patients is much less than the % mortality for all infections.

    **I’d love to hear from those medical professionals who have posted here (and claimed credibility based on their profession) about this aspect. How much is the data skewed by positive, non-tested population? If there is a large percentage of low-symptom un-tested infections, then their data is obviously not included in any of the statistics, right?

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  • edited March 2020

    The problem are the people not the virus.

    And it’s probably only a relatively small margin of people.

    But those who go grocery shopping, and irrationally think they need 24 cans of tomatoes and 2kg of dry bread cause they think they need it... or they believe the mumbojumbo spread by media (cause they find the „official government list of stuff you need“ which actually is way older than this stupid virus)...

    And the media probably just thinks, whatever makes money eh?

    Same as those who run around, buying all the mask and disinfectants they can find.

    Those are the biggest risk and biggest annoyances. I just want to cook some pasta tonight but cannot, cause stupid people buy the needed ingredients in incomprehensible amounts.

  • Here in the UK virus saturation would be around mid-summer if no seasonal fluctuation, could be around half a million fatalities, but about 8 to 12 million seriously ill.

  • edited March 2020

    @Max23 said:
    @Hmtx obviosly you don’t show up in the numbers if don’t get tested.
    But this is a very dynamic model — it’s kind of like we are watching with the numbers a race car Tracks that drove through town 2 weeks ago.
    So the numbers do very heavy limbo because of different reasons.
    But what’s sure is, it’s dangerous, it kills people, and it’s halfway around the globe already.
    Let’s hope it doesn’t mutate like crazy then we are in Really deep shit.

    I also want to punctualize a strange phenomenon. I was told a strange thing: daughter negative and parents positive at test. And the potential contagion started from the school of the little daughter (for this reason parents were tested). I presume, but I have no scientific basis, it’s only a logic assumption, that actual tests may not be completely sure.
    It seems like the first AIDS years, were it was thought that a kiss or a handshake could spread the disease.
    I am quite sure that in Italy and Europe the virus has spread since end of 2019 or first days of 2020. More tests they will make, assuming the test is working, more positive asymptomatic people, will be found.
    Here in Italy the only two regions that got totally stopped on every service are Veneto and Lombardia, the most important regions for Italian economy. Tuscany, which is crowded of Chineses, got very little positive cases. Strange.

  • It always surprises me how people attack "the media," as if it's some monolithic entity that is united in its aims.

    The "media" includes The Guardian, The New York Times, and Le Monde. It includes the BBC, CNN and Fox News. But it also includes Rush Limbaugh, Chapo Trap House and the broadcast arm of whatever religious nut suggests that drinking bleach is a good way to ward off this coronavirus.

    The "media" is also Facebook and Twitter and Instagram and Tik Tok, which are often the only sources of information for low-information citizens. And these companies are in a feedback loop with the people who actively click on scarebait stories. These media are only giving the suckers what they ask for.

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  • An important point that gets overlooked in some of the back and forth (and is discussed in the article I linked to a few posts up).

    It is both true that the mortality statistics are probably skewed by the incomplete data (i.e. because reported/known cases are a fraction of actual cases) AND because of the incompleteness we don't really know to what degree the statistics are skewed. I have heard a number of epidemiologists put emphasis on the fact that the nature of the incomplete data is such that it is a mistake to extrapolate too much about the likely statistics (because early speculation even by experts is often wrong).

    There is no reason to panic and also reason to be more careful than you might otherwise be about things like hand washing and not exposing other people if you are coughing or feverish.

  • I read an semi-interesting article in the new yorker, interview, well more quotes than full interview, with one of the worlds leading infectious disease epidemiologists, who flew out to china early as his colleagues over there alerted him to something new that was happening.

    An interesting paragraph, which some of you have touched on here, trying to figure out why some people are immune, which makes me wonder if some people can carry the virus and not develop any symptoms. Quote fta follows.

    ‘Lipkin was more concerned with the virus itself: how widely it has spread, why some people get it and others don’t, how to counteract it. “The trick with all this is, it’s an arms race,” he said. “The virus is evading you. You want to make sure you keep up with it.” He added that he was “cautiously optimistic” that citizens and governments will now be more careful, and that we can accelerate the development of drugs and a vaccine’.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/09/a-local-guide-to-the-coronavirus?

  • @ecstaticax said:
    90% people got it without symptoms. If you a have a base of 1000 people and 10 die, it's 0.1% 1% death rate. If you check 100 people and 10 die, it's 10% death rate.
    Actually CoronaVirus is 99% propaganda and 1% reality.

    Sure. But this means 900 people are out infecting others without detection. People with the virus are not detected until after they have spread it and exponential effects should spread it far and wide.

    Statistics and how to analyze them are helpful to create optimal public policy for the best outcomes. I'm just assuming I will get it at some point and working towards having optimal health... diet and exercise. I can delay getting it with behavior but I suspect it's only a matter of time for me to get tagged with it.

    All the conspiracy talk and trashing people for just wanting facts and advice is part of the problem. Tune out on news and it spreads faster. How and where you get your news is also very good advice. Share information that's helpful. But if you really don't care or belief this will be anything more than hysteria just try "ignore".

  • edited March 2020

    isn’t it just common sense that people err on the side of caution? Sure there will be runs on groceries, and folks like @Zaubrer will miss their pasta for a few days. If there is no problem the stores will fill up in a few days and the spaghetti ala carbonara will flow like rivers again (are the rivers still flowing?).
    My girlfriend and I are both over 65 with respiratory problems. I have overstocked our pantry but there is no food shortage here in Savannah, Georgia. So I am not inconveniencing anyone. Everything I bought is consumable over a long period of time, so no wasted money. So, am I doing wrong here?

    What’s so interesting about these prognostications (other than that they are prognostications) is that in six months (or three) we will know who was right and who was wrong. Unfortunately, there is no value in being right or wrong. The only thing that counts is the protection of human lives by people who care about such things. If you think it was gonna be real bad and it doesn’t turn out that way you were a scared goose. If, on the other hand, as my ophthalmologist said to me today, this thing is really bad shit, then those who promoted it as overblown hype may have convinced others of their rectitude and those others may be very sick or dead. So which is better... scared goose or Pollyanna propagandist? Maybe just better for everyone to keep their mouths shut... with the bonus of less spit possibly transmitting disease.

    Whatever this is, it will not be the last. The states of preparedness across the globe are there for all to see... for example, almost all respirators in the US currently in service for flu victims (NPR) which means not a lot for those sick ones to come. In the US government resources built up during previous times are no longer in place as they were after the Ebola outbreak. I am not making a political point here. Just talking about the willingness to be prepared for an inevitability.... or not.

  • Read two more interesting articles this evening first is a bit grim, but after reading it I feel strangely relieved, even tho it starts off, stuff of nightmares. Take away from it that resonated with me, this is mainly one epidemiologist from harvard, altho others are making similar predictions, still too early to know for sure how this will pan out.

    one - it doesn’t look like it’s going to be contained
    two - estimated 40-70% infection rate globally this year
    three - high chance it will become endemic and be part of the regular flu season
    four - no symptoms for some, mild symptoms for most, more severe flu like symptoms for a few, respiratory distress for a minority, which can turn deadly (mainly the old and others with underlying heath problems).

    My approach after reading this is not to worry as it looks like it might be with us for awhile, likelihood of catching it seems high, especially as I live in a city, which has drawbacks and pluses too, like more hospitals, unless they become over stretched.

    I am going to watch carefully for breathing issues and advise all my loved ones to do the same especially the old fruits, phone whatever services are set up in their region or country that’s dealing with the outbreak for advice if it goes there, but try to avoid travelling to the doctors or hospital until advised to do so, just incase it’s spread to others who are vulnerable.

    For some who run into breathing difficulties getting treatment as soon as possible could be vital, as it’s closely related to sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) technically SARS-CoV-2, but called COVID-19. Not as deadly as sars but more infectious due to having mild and asymptomatic infections that can spread undetected. Is a very interesting read, not sure how this will pan out but I appreciate more detailed info, to be prepared, just incase.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/?

    Second interesting piece is how china is dealing with the outbreak, very futuristic with black mirror overtones. Not sure how much of it is true as the new york times veers from great journalism to turds masquerading as news and informed opinion (they are not alone in this imo). Looks like the shape of things to come in regards to dealing with potential pandemics and also very dystopian in many ways, interesting use of smartphones tho.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/business/china-coronavirus-surveillance.html

  • @LinearLineman said:
    isn’t it just common sense that people err on the side of caution? Sure there will be runs on groceries, and folks like @Zaubrer will miss their pasta for a few days. If there is no problem the stores will fill up in a few days and the spaghetti ala carbonara will flow like rivers again (are the rivers still flowing?).
    My girlfriend and I are both over 65 with respiratory problems. I have overstocked our pantry but there is no food shortage here in Savannah, Georgia. So I am not inconveniencing anyone. Everything I bought is consumable over a long period of time, so no wasted money. So, am I doing wrong here?

    What’s so interesting about these prognostications (other than that they are prognostications) is that in six months (or three) we will know who was right and who was wrong. Unfortunately, there is no value in being right or wrong. The only thing that counts is the protection of human lives by people who care about such things. If you think it was gonna be real bad and it doesn’t turn out that way you were a scared goose. If, on the other hand, as my ophthalmologist said to me today, this thing is really bad shit, then those who promoted it as overblown hype may have convinced others of their rectitude and those others may be very sick or dead. So which is better... scared goose or Pollyanna propagandist? Maybe just better for everyone to keep their mouths shut... with the bonus of less spit possibly transmitting disease.

    Whatever this is, it will not be the last. The states of preparedness across the globe are there for all to see... for example, almost all respirators in the US currently in service for flu victims (NPR) which means not a lot for those sick ones to come. In the US government resources built up during previous times are no longer in place as they were after the Ebola outbreak. I am not making a political point here. Just talking about the willingness to be prepared for an inevitability.... or not.

    Read your comment after I typed out that long reply, I’ve moved from concerned goose to slightly more chilled goose with watchful eye, slowly building supplies just incase my city goes into lockdown. Stage two will be getting all the info ready on who to contact incase things go the shape of a pear and passing it around my circle. Hopefully tho the worse predictions will just get most people ready, with things not turning out so bad.

  • @LinearLineman said:
    My girlfriend and I are both over 65 with respiratory problems. I have overstocked our pantry but there is no food shortage here in Savannah, Georgia. So I am not inconveniencing anyone. Everything I bought is consumable over a long period of time, so no wasted money. So, am I doing wrong here?

    Sounds pretty sensible to me. If you are in a susceptible category staying home and keeping your head down may well be a good strategy for a while.

    Here are some tips on avoiding the virus.

    https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/wuhan-coronavirus-safety-china/

    1. When you leave your home, wear gloves—winter mittens or outdoor gloves—and keep them on in subways, buses, and public spaces.

    2. If you are in a social situation where you should remove your gloves, perhaps to shake hands or dine, do not touch your face or eyes, no matter how much something itches. Keep your hands away from contact with your face. And before you put your gloves back on, wash your hands thoroughly with soap and warm water, scrubbing the fingers. Put your gloves on.

    3. Change gloves daily, washing them thoroughly, and avoid wearing damp gloves.

    4. Masks are useless when worn outdoors and may not be very helpful even indoors. Most masks deteriorate after one or two wearings. Using the same mask day after day is worse than useless—it’s disgusting, as the contents of your mouth and nose eventually coat the inside of the mask with a smelly veneer that is attractive to bacteria. I rarely wear a face mask in an epidemic, and I have been in more than 30 outbreaks. Instead, I stay away from crowds, and I keep my distance from individual people—a half meter, about 1.5 feet, is a good standard. If someone is coughing or sneezing, I ask them to put on a mask—to protect me from their potentially contaminated fluids. If they decline, I step a meter (about 3 feet) away from them, or I leave. Don’t shake hands or hug people—politely beg off, saying it’s better for both of you not to come in close contact during an epidemic.

    5. Inside your household, remove all of the towels from your bathrooms and kitchen immediately, and replace them with clean towels that have the names of each family member on them. Instruct everybody in your home to only use their own towels and never touch another family member’s. Wash all towels twice a week. Damp towels provide terrific homes for viruses, like common colds, flus, and, yes, coronaviruses.

    6. Be careful with doorknobs. If it’s possible to open and close doors using your elbows or shoulders, do so. Wear gloves to turn a doorknob—or wash your hands after touching it. If anybody in your home takes sick, wash your doorknobs regularly. Similarly, be cautious with stairway banisters, desktops, cell phones, toys, laptops—any objects that are hand-held. As long as you handle only your own personal objects, you will be ok—but if you need to pick up someone else’s cell phone or cooking tools or use someone else’s computer keyboard, be mindful of not touching your face and wash your hands immediately after touching the object.

    7. If you share meals, do not use your personal chopsticks and utensils to remove food from a serving bowl or plate and, of course, tell your children to never drink out of anybody else’s cups or from a container of shared fluid. It is customary in China to prepare several dishes for a meal and then allow everybody at the table to use their personal chopsticks to pull food from the common dishes: Don’t do this until the epidemic is over. Place serving spoons in each dish and instruct everybody at the table to scoop what they want from the serving dishes onto their personal plates or bowls, return the serving spoon to the main dish, and then use their personal chopsticks only to pick food from their personal plate or bowl into their mouth. Wash all food and kitchenware thoroughly between meals and avoid restaurants that have poor hygiene practices.

  • edited March 2020

    And sex @pauly? Don’t tell me, I don’t wanna know! Good advice, though. Thanks.
    Btw... 30 outbreaks? Are you in the healthcare field or just a plague follower?

  • @LinearLineman said:
    And sex @pauly?

    “If it makes you nervous, you’re doing it right.” -Childish Gambino

    Although Mister Glover might have been talking about creativity in general, or at least I'd like to think so...

  • A journalist I trust reports:

    Don’t panic. Doctors/ virologists I’m speaking to say 98% of people will be fine, even if they get Covid-19. They expect it will go around the world, but that most people who get it will be a little sick, then recover. The danger is to vulnerable people. Hospitals/ old age homes.

    Call your mom and dad, grandparents, elder mentors and say some of the things you'd like to be sure you say before you can't. I recall the last phone call with my dad and it didn't go well. Then I had a call with a brother-in-law and I made sure I could express some gratitude and he died 2 weeks later.

    If it hits the elderly and elderly are (need a fact here) 20% of the population then it's more like 8% of all elderly people checking out when virus checks in to their community. In the US this population has Medicare so the system will be running at full capacity impacting all groups with a shortage of staff and facilities for emergency care.

    Send @linearlineman an iTunes gift card to make up for all the stress of hanging out here.
    (I heard that! FU2.)

  • @LinearLineman said:
    And sex @pauly? Don’t tell me, I don’t wanna know! Good advice, though. Thanks.
    Btw... 30 outbreaks? Are you in the healthcare field or just a plague follower?

    Not me: Laurie Garrett, former senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. Heard her on "On the Media" talking about this.

  • Unless the spread of the virus is slowed by seasonal changes, based on the statistics available so far, no healthcare system is going to cope comfortably with the number of cases that are severe. At a certain point testing and containment measures will be dropped.

  • here's the thing though, I don't want it.

  • @kobamoto said:
    here's the thing though, I don't want it.

    No, it’s bloody horrible. I fear for my sister too, in her 70’s, just getting over lung cancer and living in a highly populated area. Good tips from @pauly though so I’ll pass them on.

    Personally I work from home, and Mrs Monzo has that option too for some of the time. Once they close the schools and Monzo Jnr is home full time, we’ll bunker down here until hopefully the first wave passes, assuming we haven’t got it already.

  • It looks like kids are often not very affected by the virus, but can catch it without symptoms. I'm kind of glad now we didn't plan Easter holidays with either of my rather old parents (who live several hours flight away). It'd be nasty going for a family visit and ending up giving to them.

  • Our UK government, so now the the idea is bringing NHS retirees back to help out, medical staff seem to have an increased risk with the virus, no doubt they’ll have the increased risk of age, as well.

  • My advice would be to go straight to information sources and bypass news media. Here's the best website I've found so far for being purely fact based:
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    has tons of links and particularly a link to the WHO official feed.

  • edited March 2020
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